Carbonator Climate Model

What is Carbonator?

Carbonator is a simple climate model developed at UNSW's Climate Change Research Centre. Unlike full climate models that can tell us how climate variables evolve at different locations, Carbonator focuses on globally averaged changes—but does so with remarkable efficiency and accessibility.

Using only 20-30 lines of computer code, Carbonator can simulate decades of climate system evolution in just a few seconds on your computer. Despite its simplicity, it's based on the same fundamental laws of physics that underpin state-of-the-art climate models—particularly the conservation of energy—and produces results remarkably similar to those complex models for key global variables.

How Does Carbonator Work?

Carbonator transforms six user-defined inputs into comprehensive climate projections:

• CO₂ emissions - billions of tons of CO₂ released annually
• CH₄ emissions - methane release rates
• Human aerosol emissions - particles from pollution and industry
• Volcanic aerosol emissions - natural atmospheric particles
• Solar radiation - energy reaching Earth from the sun
• Surface reflectivity - Earth's albedo changes

From these inputs, Carbonator calculates how key climate variables evolve over time:

• Surface temperature
• Deep ocean temperature
• Sea level rise
• Ocean pH (acidification)
• Atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ and CH₄

For Teaching and Learning

Carbonator is specifically designed for inquiry-based, blended, and independent learning across secondary schools through to university level. Science inquiry involves identifying and posing questions, and Carbonator provides an ideal platform for students to construct questions, develop hypotheses, and test predictions.

Example Student Projects

Students can explore a wide range of climate science questions using Carbonator. Example investigations include:

• Climate Attribution: Investigate which factors drive observed climate changes by comparing scenarios with natural forcings only (solar, volcanic) versus human forcings (CO₂, aerosols, methane)
• Mitigation Strategies: Explore different pathways to limit warming, from immediate emissions cuts to gradual phase-outs, and understand the consequences of delayed action
• Geoengineering Scenarios: Test whether proposed interventions like aerosol injection could offset warming, and examine potential unintended consequences on sea level and ocean acidification

For Research

While Carbonator's primary purpose is education, it has proven valuable for research applications where rapid hypothesis testing and probabilistic projections are needed. The model's transparency and computational efficiency make it ideal for exploring scenario uncertainties and conducting sensitivity analyses.

This demonstrates how simplified models can address urgent policy questions that complex models struggle with due to computational constraints. The study combined Carbonator with a Bayesian approach incorporating multiple lines of evidence, showing that the uncertainty in committed warming arises mainly from present-day aerosol forcing.

Advanced Features

For advanced users, Carbonator offers additional capabilities:

• Custom scenario development - Create detailed emission pathways using multiple control points
• Data import/export - Import scenarios from spreadsheets and export results for further analysis
• Parameter modification - Adjust model parameters to explore sensitivities
• Comparison tools - Compare multiple scenarios side-by-side